The fact that the JLP has caught up to the PNP in the polls is no surprise to me. The government has done well in the face of terrible world conditions. They have escaped the "Dudus trap" and are accelerating smoothly away from it. In fact I give full credit to Bruce Golding for this acheivement. It was his admission, apology & resignation that made all this possible!
It was easy to foresee that the government would lose popularity in the effort to fix Jamaica's problems. Added to that difficulty would be the extradition issue. I think Golding calculated that if he tried to mitigate the effect of the process, he could get his party through it. I think he went further & capitalised on it. He, I believe, knew early on that a big political sacrifice would be needed.
What our government & ruling party did, is common around the world. Golding must have known that the Opposition & the press would say the opposite. I believe that in order to overcome the expected fatal fall in popularity, he made a big show of "confessing", apologizing & then resigning. These actions, stretched over time led uncommitted voters & the middle class to think that they had pushed him. They now think that they have the JLP by the short hairs. Here is a party that they can influence!! They remember the PNP style of "pretending" to consult for months before doing precisely what they had intended to do in the first place.
The uncommitted are flocking to the JLP now and are responsible for the jump in the polling numbers. This jump & the new, younger PM are energizing the JLP base. This combination of active, vocal JLP base and the uncommitted is fast becoming unstoppable. The PNP is heading for another defeat.
A defeat for Mrs Simpson-Miller after the well laid Dudus/Manatt episode would cause a revolt in the PNP by the youngsters, against her inner circle. This, because the old guard would not step aside. It is not the PNP way. Besides, they believe that they have not had there full chance at glory yet. I think Golding foresaw this & realised that a hard fought, marginal victory over the PNP with himself at the helm would be the lesser option. The better option would be a big win despite Manatt & the better mobilisation of the Opposition in the voter enumeration exercise. That decimation of the PNP's expectations & internal turmoil would buy Golding's men at least another ten years in office. The job of fixing Jamaica once & for all will take at least that long. A carefully thought out selfless plan by a great leader or the wishful thinking of a JLP sympathiser? What do you think.
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